QUICK WEATHER FORECAST:

  • Tonight: Sct’d showers early, more rain later, low 40 (and rising)
  • Thursday: Morning rain, then clearing, then chance storms later, high 60
  • Friday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, sct’d flurries, high 37
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy, high 39
  • Sunday: AM wet snow to rain, high 38

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Wednesday Evening,

It has been a more seasonal day today with highs still a few degrees above normal in the lower 40s. We will see our temps basically hitting the lows early this evening, with temps slowly rising into the lower 40s again by midnight. Overnight rain showers will pick up a bit with temps into the upper 40s by daybreak with rain showers around to start the day.

Rain showers will taper off during the morning commute, and skies will turn partly cloudy during the late morning and into the afternoon hours on Thursday. But the trailing low will push through the northwest part of the state, and this is the part of the area that has a marginal to slight risk for severe weather later tomorrow.

The marginal risk is basically from the counties near I-71 and northwest, with the higher, slight risk, in the northwest part of our area, with the main threats being strong gusty winds with the storms. However, with the low being very closely associated with these storms, it is possible to have a bit of hail and a brief spin up tornado. The risk is very low, but it is not zero, so it bears watching.

The window for this severe weather threat appears to be after 3p, and ending ahead of 7pm. Really, for most of the area, the threat will be in a narrow window, as colder, more stable air will quickly follow the line of storms that pop up. Temps will fall to near freezing to start Friday morning, about a dozen above normal. However, with rather cloudy skies on Friday, and blowing flurries, temps will only recover a few degrees into the upper 30s.

Saturday should start the weekend drier, with temps slightly above normal close to 40. Wet snow showers will transition to cold rain showers later on Sunday morning with temps again in the upper 30s on Sunday on a rather wet finish to the weekend.

Monday expect cloudy skies, with a few flurries possible and highs in the upper 30s. Not much of a change expected on Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 40s. We will see our next system approaching by mid week with scattered rain showers and highs near 40.

-Dave