Weather Alert Day for Thursday, threat for rain/storms, some strong to severe

Forecast

QUICK WEATHER FORECAST:

  • Tonight: Partly cloudy, muggy, low 70
  • Thursday: Mostly cloudy, morning t-showers, more storms later, high 86
  • Friday: Clearing skies, cooler, high 81
  • Saturday: Mostly sunny, high 81
  • Sunday: Partly cloudy, isolated late day storms, high 82

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Wednesday Evening,

Overnight we will stay partly cloudy with clouds increasing late, lows will stay around 70. We will be closely watching a developing complex of storms far to our northwest (Minnesota/Wisconsin). Overnight this complex looks to push southeast toward our area by daybreak on Thursday. This complex should be weakening, but could bring some gusty thunderstorms to our northern counties early.

The forecast for Thursday will depend on how strong the leftover storms are when they arrive, and how long they stick around for Thursday morning. The more rain and storms, and/or the stronger they are early, could hinder stronger storms later in the day. Especially if they stick around and keep more clouds around during the heating of the day.

If the storms fall apart quicker/or move out quicker our threat will increase late morning and into the afternoon hours on Thursday. At this point, I think we need to prepare for weakening storms to move into our northwest counties by daybreak and fall apart as they move southeast through our area. This will allow stronger storms to form late morning and into the afternoon.

I think the severe threat will ramp up late morning and into the afternoon hours, and should push east/southeast through the day. The severe threat should diminish by sunset with isolated storms remaining through midnight tomorrow night as the cold front pushes southeast. Highs will top in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday.

Threats for Thursday will be some gusty wind showers storms early, but will see the strong wind threat be the main threat late morning to the evening hours, but in this same time frame, there is a very low, but still a threat for some larger hail with some thunderstorms, and possibly a spin up tornado, that threat appears to be more to the east, but is still a threat we will watch very closely.

Friday we will see clearing skies, and it will be a nice day with highs in the lower 80s. Saturday will be even more beautiful with sunshine, and a cool start to the day. Temps will start in the 50s and barely climb into the lower 80s. Sunday we will have a weak front push through late. Partly cloudy skies, will give way to a few isolated storms with the front late day, highs in the lower 80s.

Behind the front, pretty outstanding weather to start next work week. Lots of sunshine, and comfortable temps in the upper 70s to near 80 on Monday, and in the lower to middle 80s by midweek.

-Dave

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