QUICK WEATHER FORECAST:
- Tonight: Clouds increase, winds relax, low 47
- Thursday: Rain, breezy, few storms possible, high 63
- Friday: Cloudy, breezy, colder, daytime high 33
- Saturday: Chilly start, sunny, high 44
- Sunday: Mostly sunny, high 52
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Good Wednesday Evening,
It has been a record warm day today, with highs a few degrees above the record in the lower 70s. The winds that have been very gusty through the day today will settle down and relax overnight becoming light and variable with lows dropping into the upper 40s.
Thursday expect morning rain showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder. The bigger threat in the morning is for some heavy downpours of rain, as temps will slowly climb out of the 40s and into the 50s. As the rain moves out, we will be watching to see how much of a break in the clouds we get.
At this point, it appears we will be able to get some minor instability to form before the next round of rain and potential storms moves in. This should aid in having a few storms in the afternoon to early evening hours. The bigger threat is some of the strong gusty winds being able to mix closer to the ground ahead and with these storms.
As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has almost all of our area under a slight risk, or a level 2 risk out of 5 for severe weather. The have moved the enhanced, or level 3 out of 5 risk further to the southwest tomorrow. Our main threat with these storms will be gusty winds mainly after lunch and before sunset. With the location of the low, the there is a very very low chance, but a chance of a spin up tornado, something to be alert to.
Once the frontal boundary pushes east, the severe threat will quickly end, as colder, and drier air will start to mix into our area. Temps will be near the middle to upper 40s for the high at midnight Friday, but the temps will dip to the upper 20s in the morning with wind chills in the teens. Highs Friday afternoon, will only top in the lower 30s with chills in the 20s.
Saturday expected our coldest start of the period, with lows in the middle to upper teens, but with ample sunshine, temps should jump to the middle 40s during the day. We will see a few more clouds on Sunday, but a warmer day with highs in the lower 50s.
Clouds will increase more on Monday with rain at night, and highs in the lower 50s again. We will see on and off showers on Tuesday as a cold front slowly pushes through the area, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. We will cool back to near normal with the front just to our south, and some light rain showers sticking around the area for next Wednesday.
-Dave
