Very low chance of a white Christmas, here is why

Cbus Weather Nerd

We are officially in the less than a week window now until Christmas Day.  It is basically the only day that the majority of us agree that a bit of snow would be nice (as long as it goes away the next day).

I have been tracking the chances of seeing a White Christmas this year, and for the past few years it has not been looking good.  The biggest issue is the warmer than normal temperatures.

While much of the country will be dealing with messy weather systems, we are going to see a rather quiet pattern heading into Christmas, but before we get there, it will be wet.

Later in the day on Wednesday, we will start to see clouds thickening up in our area as a weather system starts to nudge its way in.  Temps will climb into the upper 40s on Wednesday, and will stay above freezing starting Wednesday mid-morning, and will stay above freezing until Sunday early morning.

Now I should note, that most spots outside of the city should drop just below freezing on Saturday morning.

Saturday periods of rain showers will return late in the day and into the overnight.  But the southwest flow moving in will keep our temps in the upper 40s to around 50.

Rain will continue into the Friday forecast with morning lows in the lower 40s and highs in the middle 40s.

On the backside of this system, we are going to see colder air working in Friday night, and this could bring a rain/snow mix, or light snow on the backside of the system.  It will not be enough to coat the ground by early Saturday.

Even if we had an intense snowfall on Friday night, temps would still climb into the upper 30s to near 40s both weekend days, and the snow would melt.   However, the ground temps will be quite mild for mid-December, and most if not all of the precip. will fall as rain.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday should have a good deal of clouds, but all three days will have highs near or slightly above 40, and morning lows near freezing.  This will keep ground temps rather mild still and would prevent any sticking.

One minor thing to keep our eyes on, is a potential system to arrive on Christmas Tuesday later in the day. While I do not think it will bring snow at this point, a timing shift could change that.

Even on the off chance of a big speed up in this system, and if it were to arrive early on Tuesday then we could possibly see some light snow from it.  However, one of the big questions marks would be how much overriding warm air would be coming in with it.

At this point, I think even if we did see a speed up in time for Tuesday morning, I think we could see snow showers mixed with rain showers.  Again, not enough for a white Christmas.  

Technically we look for a “White Christmas” as one that has 1″ or more of snow covered on the ground for Christmas Day or on Christmas Day.  I think there is pretty much no chance of that, but I think there is still a very slight chance that we could see some snow flurries on Christmas Day.  

That might have to count this year….

If you have questions about climatology, snow, winter weather, or any other weather questions, email me, dmazza@wcmh.com

Have a merry & safe Christmas and happy holidays to everyone!

-Dave

 

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