Cbus Weather Nerd

Testy tropics heating up, times two!

Atlantic Hurricane Season picking up this weekend

COLUMBUS (WCMH) - It isn't quite the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, but we are starting to see a lot more activity this evening, as Hurricane Beryl has developed into our 1st hurricane in the basin this year.  It is still racing to the west (for a hurricane).  

This is a rather small hurricane too, and it is moving fast.  Also it is forecast to encounter a bit more shear by the end of the weekend and that is why in the short term the forecast has it becoming stronger by Saturday night/Sunday morning with winds up to 100mph. 

But by the start of next work week, it should weaken to a strong, but small tropical storm as it passes south of Puerto Rico, and then near the DR/Haiti by Tuesday as a weak tropical storm.

The majority of the models has this storm on a mainly westerly track for the next 5-7 days, and weakening by early next week as it encounters land, and wind shear (tropical systems don't like this).

It is important to note that a shift in speed or track could have a fairly decent impact on the forecast intensity.

Closer to home we are watching new Tropical Depression 3

A few hundred miles south of where many of us vacation off the coast of the Outer Banks (I have never been, but really want to visit), we have a good deal of clouds, and increasing winds.

This cluster of storms will require a lot more watching as this system will be moving north the next few days, but encountering a system that pushed through our backyards early today.  This should keep the system off shore, but nearby.

If this were to become named, it would be "Chris".

The majority of the forecast model data takes into account the cold front, and a big high that will keep this system off the east coast of the US.  This will at minimum bring clouds to the coasts, and kick up the waves.

Later in the forecast to the start of next week a trough will interact with this system from the west, and this will start to give this system some push to move to the east/northeast.  At this time the latest data is showing this system getting stronger and becoming a hurricane. 

The good news is, that the storm will continue to push away from the US coast.  The wind and rain fields should remain on the east side primarily of this storm.  Waves will kick up still.

We will continue to watch both of these systems over the next few days.  We will especially keep our eyes on this system to our southeast, as many Buckeyes vacation along the east coast this time of year.

-Dave


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