Columbus (WCMH) - Spring is here, we went from highs in the 80s, to a morning tornado in Clark county to start Friday morning. We will have a quiet period through Saturday with sunshine mixed with clouds and above normal temps.
So Saturday the risk will be to our southwest. In fact, they have a pretty elevated risk, or a "moderate risk" of severe storms on Saturday. For us, we will have a nice afternoon with plenty of sunshine and mild temps in the mid to upper 60s.
On Sunday though, that low will track northeast, and moving up towards our backyard. This will bring up our risk for strong to severe storms on Sunday.
You can see the threat extends through our entire area, but we have the greater threat, the further south you go in the state, with the highest risk in the south. This area is under an "enhanced risk".
The main threats on Sunday will be strong gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms. But with the low making its way up into the state on Sunday, we could have enough to see a brief spin up tornado as well. While the risk is quite low, it still requires watching.
Early on Sunday we will see the first round of rain showers moving up into our area. These shouldn't be too much overnight. But will be the lead of many chances for rain, that could end up accounting for a really good soaking in spots Sunday.
By daybreak we see more rain and even a few storms possible. I think this could be the lead of a much heavier band of rainfall on Sunday morning, for Palm Sunday.
I mention Palm Sunday, because back in 1965 we had a major tornadic outbreak for Palm Sunday that did have major impacts in Ohio as well. Read more here from our local National Weather Service office on the 1965 outbreak.
I am not expecting that kind of event at all, but it is always worth noting the anniversary of big weather events.
By the late morning to the afternoon, the models showing a line of storms forming to the west, and this will require watching, this would could produce some strong straight line winds with it as it moves across our area during the early afternoon.
We could see a more broken line of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon with some strong gusty winds possible as the low makes its way up into the state.
At this time it appears that the low will move up the I-71 corridor, and will continue with storms through the day, wrapping up late on Sunday. As the system exits out of the state, much cooler air will move in on the backside for Monday with highs struggling into the lower 50s.
Bottom line, expect rain, and wind at a minimum on Sunday. Areas will pick up between a half an inch with isolated spots of more than an inch of rain expected. Rain will start to wrap up by Sunday night. We will have to keep a close eye on how much instability we have Sunday.
At this point it appears we will have some marginal instability to work with on Sunday and a strong incoming wind aloft too. We will continue to track the chances for these storms for the weekend.
Always a good idea if you are out and about to keep your Storm Team 4 weather app handy to alert you if lightning, storms, or severe weather comes your way.
If you have questions about storms, severe weather, or any other weather, email me, firstname.lastname@example.org