Cbus Weather Nerd

Snow showers in the Friday forecast, what to expect

Colder temps + precipitation could spell a morning mix

Columbus (WCMH) - It is about that time of the year when we start talking and thinking about colder weather, winter, and yes even SNOW!

Tonight we are watching a somewhat complicated weather system that will be arriving late tonight.

In the short term, this is what to expect...

Quiet weather.  Clouds will increase tonight though, and past midnight with precipitation generally staying out of the state.  It will not last long because later after midnight is when the precip. will start.

You will notice by mid-overnight (2a-4a) time frame, we will see rain showers spreading into our area overnight.

What is going to be interesting is that we could have a bit of warmer air move in with this system, and it might be enough for most of us to see just rain.  Remember, to see snow, you need a cold column of air to keep the flakes white vs. wet.

As we head into the early morning hours on Friday, temps will fall close to freezing to the middle 30s.  There will be some slightly warmer temps just to the south of I-70 in the upper 30s.

In the south, the temps will be warm enough that this will be an all rain event.

But along the I-70 corridor, we could see a few flakes, and north of I-70 we should see some snow showers mixed with cold rain showers.

By mid-morning, we should see temps warming enough that most of the precip will be rain showers only.  There will be a few cooler spots to the north that may still have a light mix.

By Noon the precip. will start tapering down, but the cooler air will be ushering in on the back of a breezy and cool afternoon.  There might be enough energy on the backside of this system to keep a few light daytime showers, with snow flurries possible again Friday night with much colder temps.

Our latest forecast model still shows an inch plus of snowfall to the north.  But you have to remember the model forecast shows the amount of precip. falling from the clouds as snowfall.  The road temps, and the surface temps of the ground are well above freezing.

Also, the air temperatures in most if not all locations will be above freezing too.  Along with rain showers that will be mixed in, I do expect much lower snowfall "depths" for totals through tomorrow morning.  But below is our in-house model forecast for snowfall Friday morning.  

Also at the temps we will have tomorrow morning, it would take about .01" of water to make 1/10" of snow.  Or on the higher ends, it would take about 1/4" of water (rain) to produce the higher totals of snow.  Not a lot!

How odd is it to get snow this early?

Not too odd at all.  In fact, it was only 6 years ago that we had a couple of snows by the 8th of November.  Now I will also add, that typically we have our first measurable (0.1") of snow around the 21st of November.

Below is data from the NWS for first/last measurable snowfall for each winter season.

 

Date First Last
1931-1932 Nov-27 (1931) Mar-14 (1932)
1932-1933 Dec-10 (1932) Mar-25 (1933)
1933-1934 Nov-08 (1933) Apr-21 (1934)
1934-1935 Dec-08 (1934) Apr-16 (1935)
1935-1936 Nov-29 (1935) Apr-21 (1936)
1936-1937 Nov-04 (1936) Mar-15 (1937)
1937-1938 Nov-18 (1937) Mar-10 (1938)
1938-1939 Nov-23 (1938) Apr-07 (1939)
1939-1940 Dec-03 (1939) Apr-14 (1940)
1940-1941 Nov-15 (1940) Mar-16 (1941)
1941-1942 Nov-09 (1941) Mar-31 (1942)
1942-1943 Nov-29 (1942) Apr-15 (1943)
1943-1944 Nov-10 (1943) Apr-04 (1944)
1944-1945 Dec-11 (1944) Feb-26 (1945)
1945-1946 Nov-22 (1945) Apr-11 (1946)
1946-1947 Dec-16 (1946) Mar-26 (1947)
1947-1948 Nov-25 (1947) Mar-11 (1948)
1948-1949 Dec-10 (1948) Mar-18 (1949)
1949-1950 Dec-08 (1949) Apr-13 (1950)
1950-1951 Nov-23 (1950) Mar-19 (1951)
1951-1952 Nov-01 (1951) Mar-09 (1952)
1952-1953 Nov-29 (1952) Apr-21 (1953)
1953-1954 Nov-07 (1953) Apr-04 (1954)
1954-1955 Oct-31 (1954) Mar-26 (1955)
1955-1956 Nov-18 (1955) Apr-16 (1956)
1956-1957 Nov-21 (1956) Apr-08 (1957)
1957-1958 Dec-03 (1957) Mar-20 (1958)
1958-1959 Nov-28 (1958) Apr-12 (1959)
1959-1960 Nov-25 (1959) Mar-26 (1960)
1960-1961 Nov-29 (1960) Apr-17 (1961)
1961-1962 Nov-19 (1961) Apr-20 (1962)
1962-1963 Oct-25 (1962) Mar-20 (1963)
1963-1964 Nov-13 (1963) Mar-31 (1964)
1964-1965 Nov-29 (1964) Mar-24 (1965)
1965-1966 Nov-28 (1965) Apr-09 (1966)
1966-1967 Nov-02 (1966) Mar-20 (1967)
1967-1968 Nov-05 (1967) Mar-23 (1968)
1968-1969 Nov-09 (1968) Apr-19 (1969)
1969-1970 Nov-13 (1969) Apr-06 (1970)
1970-1971 Nov-15 (1970) Mar-23 (1971)
1971-1972 Nov-06 (1971) Apr-07 (1972)
1972-1973 Nov-26 (1972) Apr-12 (1973)
1973-1974 Dec-10 (1973) Apr-08 (1974)
1974-1975 Nov-13 (1974) Mar-14 (1975)
1975-1976 Nov-25 (1975) Mar-16 (1976)
1976-1977 Nov-21 (1976) Apr-05 (1977)
1977-1978 Nov-26 (1977) Mar-16 (1978)
1978-1979 Nov-26 (1978) Apr-09 (1979)
1979-1980 Nov-28 (1979) Mar-17 (1980)
1980-1981 Nov-17 (1980) Mar-20 (1981)
1981-1982 Nov-21 (1981) Apr-09 (1982)
1982-1983 Dec-10 (1982) Apr-18 (1983)
1983-1984 Nov-11 (1983) Apr-18 (1984)
1984-1985 Nov-18 (1984) Apr-08 (1985)
1985-1986 Dec-02 (1985) Mar-20 (1986)
1986-1987 Nov-11 (1986) Apr-05 (1987)
1987-1988 Nov-20 (1987) Mar-20 (1988)
1988-1989 Nov-06 (1988) May-07 (1989)
1989-1990 Oct-19 (1989) Apr-11 (1990)
1990-1991 Dec-04 (1990) Mar-13 (1991)
1991-1992 Nov-07 (1991) Apr-04 (1992)
1992-1993 Nov-05 (1992) Apr-02 (1993)
1993-1994 Oct-30 (1993) Apr-07 (1994)
1994-1995 Dec-10 (1994) Mar-08 (1995)
1995-1996 Nov-11 (1995) Apr-16 (1996)
1996-1997 Nov-09 (1996) Feb-16 (1997)
1997-1998 Nov-04 (1997) Mar-23 (1998)
1998-1999 Dec-16 (1998) Mar-10 (1999)
1999-2000 Nov-02 (1999) Apr-04 (2000)
2000-2001 Nov-14 (2000) Apr-17 (2001)
2001-2002 Dec-24 (2001) Apr-03 (2002)
2002-2003 Nov-22 (2002) Mar-06 (2003)
2003-2004 Nov-24 (2003) Apr-04 (2004)
2004-2005 Nov-25 (2004) Apr-24 (2005)
2005-2006 Nov-23 (2005) Mar-25 (2006)
2006-2007 Nov-20 (2006) Apr-07 (2007)
2007-2008 Dec-05 (2007) Mar-19 (2008)
2008-2009 Nov-17 (2008) Apr-06 (2009)
2009-2010 Dec-18 (2009) Mar-26 (2010)
2010-2011 Dec-01 (2010) Mar-30 (2011)
2011-2012 Dec-17 (2011) Mar-05 (2012)
2012-2013 Oct-30 (2012) Mar-27 (2013)
2013-2014 Nov-11 (2013) Apr-15 (2014)
2014-2015 Nov-16 (2014) Mar-23 (2015)
2015-2016 Jan-10 (2016) Apr-09 (2016)
2016-2017 Dec-09 (2016) Mar-17 (2017)
2017-2018 Dec-09 (2017) Apr-19 (2018)
Minimum Oct-19 (1989) Feb-16 (1997)
Mean Nov-21 Mar-31
Maximum Jan-10 (2016) May-07 (1989)

 

-Dave

 


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