Snow showers in the Friday forecast, what to expect

Cbus Weather Nerd

It is about that time of the year when we start talking and thinking about colder weather, winter, and yes even SNOW!

Tonight we are watching a somewhat complicated weather system that will be arriving late tonight.

In the short term, this is what to expect…

Quiet weather.  Clouds will increase tonight though, and past midnight with precipitation generally staying out of the state.  It will not last long because later after midnight is when the precip. will start.

You will notice by mid-overnight (2a-4a) time frame, we will see rain showers spreading into our area overnight.

What is going to be interesting is that we could have a bit of warmer air move in with this system, and it might be enough for most of us to see just rain.  Remember, to see snow, you need a cold column of air to keep the flakes white vs. wet.

As we head into the early morning hours on Friday, temps will fall close to freezing to the middle 30s.  There will be some slightly warmer temps just to the south of I-70 in the upper 30s.

In the south, the temps will be warm enough that this will be an all rain event.

But along the I-70 corridor, we could see a few flakes, and north of I-70 we should see some snow showers mixed with cold rain showers.

By mid-morning, we should see temps warming enough that most of the precip will be rain showers only.  There will be a few cooler spots to the north that may still have a light mix.

By Noon the precip. will start tapering down, but the cooler air will be ushering in on the back of a breezy and cool afternoon.  There might be enough energy on the backside of this system to keep a few light daytime showers, with snow flurries possible again Friday night with much colder temps.

Our latest forecast model still shows an inch plus of snowfall to the north.  But you have to remember the model forecast shows the amount of precip. falling from the clouds as snowfall.  The road temps, and the surface temps of the ground are well above freezing.

Also, the air temperatures in most if not all locations will be above freezing too.  Along with rain showers that will be mixed in, I do expect much lower snowfall “depths” for totals through tomorrow morning.  But below is our in-house model forecast for snowfall Friday morning.  

Also at the temps we will have tomorrow morning, it would take about .01″ of water to make 1/10″ of snow.  Or on the higher ends, it would take about 1/4″ of water (rain) to produce the higher totals of snow.  Not a lot!

How odd is it to get snow this early?

Not too odd at all.  In fact, it was only 6 years ago that we had a couple of snows by the 8th of November.  Now I will also add, that typically we have our first measurable (0.1″) of snow around the 21st of November.

Below is data from the NWS for first/last measurable snowfall for each winter season.

 

DateFirstLast
1931-1932Nov-27 (1931)Mar-14 (1932)
1932-1933Dec-10 (1932)Mar-25 (1933)
1933-1934Nov-08 (1933)Apr-21 (1934)
1934-1935Dec-08 (1934)Apr-16 (1935)
1935-1936Nov-29 (1935)Apr-21 (1936)
1936-1937Nov-04 (1936)Mar-15 (1937)
1937-1938Nov-18 (1937)Mar-10 (1938)
1938-1939Nov-23 (1938)Apr-07 (1939)
1939-1940Dec-03 (1939)Apr-14 (1940)
1940-1941Nov-15 (1940)Mar-16 (1941)
1941-1942Nov-09 (1941)Mar-31 (1942)
1942-1943Nov-29 (1942)Apr-15 (1943)
1943-1944Nov-10 (1943)Apr-04 (1944)
1944-1945Dec-11 (1944)Feb-26 (1945)
1945-1946Nov-22 (1945)Apr-11 (1946)
1946-1947Dec-16 (1946)Mar-26 (1947)
1947-1948Nov-25 (1947)Mar-11 (1948)
1948-1949Dec-10 (1948)Mar-18 (1949)
1949-1950Dec-08 (1949)Apr-13 (1950)
1950-1951Nov-23 (1950)Mar-19 (1951)
1951-1952Nov-01 (1951)Mar-09 (1952)
1952-1953Nov-29 (1952)Apr-21 (1953)
1953-1954Nov-07 (1953)Apr-04 (1954)
1954-1955Oct-31 (1954)Mar-26 (1955)
1955-1956Nov-18 (1955)Apr-16 (1956)
1956-1957Nov-21 (1956)Apr-08 (1957)
1957-1958Dec-03 (1957)Mar-20 (1958)
1958-1959Nov-28 (1958)Apr-12 (1959)
1959-1960Nov-25 (1959)Mar-26 (1960)
1960-1961Nov-29 (1960)Apr-17 (1961)
1961-1962Nov-19 (1961)Apr-20 (1962)
1962-1963Oct-25 (1962)Mar-20 (1963)
1963-1964Nov-13 (1963)Mar-31 (1964)
1964-1965Nov-29 (1964)Mar-24 (1965)
1965-1966Nov-28 (1965)Apr-09 (1966)
1966-1967Nov-02 (1966)Mar-20 (1967)
1967-1968Nov-05 (1967)Mar-23 (1968)
1968-1969Nov-09 (1968)Apr-19 (1969)
1969-1970Nov-13 (1969)Apr-06 (1970)
1970-1971Nov-15 (1970)Mar-23 (1971)
1971-1972Nov-06 (1971)Apr-07 (1972)
1972-1973Nov-26 (1972)Apr-12 (1973)
1973-1974Dec-10 (1973)Apr-08 (1974)
1974-1975Nov-13 (1974)Mar-14 (1975)
1975-1976Nov-25 (1975)Mar-16 (1976)
1976-1977Nov-21 (1976)Apr-05 (1977)
1977-1978Nov-26 (1977)Mar-16 (1978)
1978-1979Nov-26 (1978)Apr-09 (1979)
1979-1980Nov-28 (1979)Mar-17 (1980)
1980-1981Nov-17 (1980)Mar-20 (1981)
1981-1982Nov-21 (1981)Apr-09 (1982)
1982-1983Dec-10 (1982)Apr-18 (1983)
1983-1984Nov-11 (1983)Apr-18 (1984)
1984-1985Nov-18 (1984)Apr-08 (1985)
1985-1986Dec-02 (1985)Mar-20 (1986)
1986-1987Nov-11 (1986)Apr-05 (1987)
1987-1988Nov-20 (1987)Mar-20 (1988)
1988-1989Nov-06 (1988)May-07 (1989)
1989-1990Oct-19 (1989)Apr-11 (1990)
1990-1991Dec-04 (1990)Mar-13 (1991)
1991-1992Nov-07 (1991)Apr-04 (1992)
1992-1993Nov-05 (1992)Apr-02 (1993)
1993-1994Oct-30 (1993)Apr-07 (1994)
1994-1995Dec-10 (1994)Mar-08 (1995)
1995-1996Nov-11 (1995)Apr-16 (1996)
1996-1997Nov-09 (1996)Feb-16 (1997)
1997-1998Nov-04 (1997)Mar-23 (1998)
1998-1999Dec-16 (1998)Mar-10 (1999)
1999-2000Nov-02 (1999)Apr-04 (2000)
2000-2001Nov-14 (2000)Apr-17 (2001)
2001-2002Dec-24 (2001)Apr-03 (2002)
2002-2003Nov-22 (2002)Mar-06 (2003)
2003-2004Nov-24 (2003)Apr-04 (2004)
2004-2005Nov-25 (2004)Apr-24 (2005)
2005-2006Nov-23 (2005)Mar-25 (2006)
2006-2007Nov-20 (2006)Apr-07 (2007)
2007-2008Dec-05 (2007)Mar-19 (2008)
2008-2009Nov-17 (2008)Apr-06 (2009)
2009-2010Dec-18 (2009)Mar-26 (2010)
2010-2011Dec-01 (2010)Mar-30 (2011)
2011-2012Dec-17 (2011)Mar-05 (2012)
2012-2013Oct-30 (2012)Mar-27 (2013)
2013-2014Nov-11 (2013)Apr-15 (2014)
2014-2015Nov-16 (2014)Mar-23 (2015)
2015-2016Jan-10 (2016)Apr-09 (2016)
2016-2017Dec-09 (2016)Mar-17 (2017)
2017-2018Dec-09 (2017)Apr-19 (2018)
MinimumOct-19 (1989)Feb-16 (1997)
MeanNov-21Mar-31
MaximumJan-10 (2016)May-07 (1989)

-Dave

Copyright 2019 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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