Nicest first full weekend of Spring in a decade on tap

Cbus Weather Nerd

We are finally at the end of a winter that for some reason feels like to most of us that would never end.  It will go down as a wetter, snowier, but warmer than normal winter (very slightly).

Looking ahead at the first full weekend of Spring (upcoming) and it looks like it is going to be a pretty nice weekend.  High pressure appears to be settling over our area, and this will give us plenty of sunshine, and temps running near to about ten degrees above normal.

This weekend could be the nicest since 2009

To explain how I was able to get this, I used a simple formula.  I first looked for the 1st day of Spring since 2000.  In our time zone, it was on the 20th every year, so that made it easy.  Next, I used the 1st weekend after the 20th, except, in 2004 when the 20th was a Saturday, and Spring started at 1:48am.

One other time, the 20th landed on Saturday (2010) but it was 13.5 hours into the day, but I still checked that weekend and the weekend after for fun.

Next, I took the high and low temps, and then looked at rainfall, and snowfall (yes, that happened several times).  I then looked at the results to see if anything will be as nice as what we are currently expecting.

What we are expecting March 23-24, 2019:

  • Saturday: 54/34, mainly sunny
  • Sunday: 61/36, mostly sunny

The last closest 1st full weekend of Spring, March 21-22, 2009:

  • Saturday: 55/28, no rain, no snow
  • Sunday: 62/30, no rain no snow

Why each year’s 1st weekend was not as good as this year:

  • 2018:  everything, it was gloomy and cool (43,46)
  • 2017:  it rained 1.53″ on Sunday, but it was very warm (75, 65)
  • 2016:  it rained 0.29″ on Sunday, but it was very warm (60, 75)
  • 2015:  this was close, but Sunday was below normal cool (63, 48)
  • 2014:  Saturday was nice, Sunday was cool (58,39)
  • 2013:  it rained Sunday, and was cool all weekend (48,38)
  • 2012:  it rained lightly both days, but it was warm (65,61)
  • 2011:  it was dry, but it was cold (38/42), lows were also 23 both days
  • 2010:  20-21st was first partial weekend, and it drizzled Sunday. But warm (69/72), but Saturday was more winter than spring (1:32pm start)
  • 2010:  27/28th was 1st full weekend, it rained Sunday, mild though (58/57)

Since 2000, it is hard to say which weekend was the worst, but there might be a best:

Using the criteria of no precipitation and warm temps both days, March 25-26, 2000 may have been the best.  The high was 69 on Saturday, 61 on Sunday, and lows well above normal, and it was dry.

After that, this weekend could be #2 since 2000!  If the high pressure holds long enough, we should all go outside and enjoy it!  As we all know, 5 days out in the spring, things can make minor changes, so we will keep the fingers crossed that Monday’s system doesn’t move faster and arrive late Sunday.

If you ever have any questions about climate, spring, weather data, or any other weather questions, email me, dmazza@wcmh.com

-Dave

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