So far this month is now officially one third over, and it currently sits at the 11th warmest May on record. When you think about the fact that we have gone through what should be the coolest part of the month, it is possible we could challenge that record before the month is out.
Considering April was our 13th coldest, and 16th wettest, it is incredible the turnaround we have had. Right now we are sitting almost 3/4 of an inch below normal for rainfall for the month, but are hardly in a drought condition.
We actually are in need of a bit of rain, and it is coming!
Notice in the graphic above, the percent of normal rainfall for the past 30 days. A number of 100% is normal, anything above means we have been wetter than normal, anything below 100% means we are drier than normal.
Based on the graphic above, you can see the last 30 days show that we could probably use a bit of rainfall, and boy is it coming.
As noted above, we have rain chances every one of the next 7 days.
But it will not be a washout the whole week, or really any single day will not either. In fact, the odds than anyone gets rain all 7 days is very slim at this point.
But, we have many chances of rain and the main reason is, the location of a lazy front that will get cozy with Ohio.
This “Buckeye Boundary” will hang around the state, giving us rain
I have named this front the “Buckeye Boundary” because of how it will make itself comfortable around Ohio over the next 7 days. It will be the main driver of our rain chances from Friday through the following week, as the front will surge, dip, slip, sneak, drift, and stall across our state.
The boundary will push northward overnight tonight, and slowly to the north on Friday, with slightly cooler air to the north of it, and warmer air south. This will give us a chance of afternoon showers and a few pop-up storms with this.
Saturday that boundary will begin to sag south late in the day and as it moves back into a very warm and moist environment we could see some strong to severe storms possible, with possible strong gusty winds with some of the storms.
Sunday that boundary basically stalls south of I-70 as it drifts around the state. With a pulse of energy moving across we could see additional thunderstorms on Sunday, however at this point I do not anticipate them being as strong or severe.
Monday as the boundary lifts north, in the afternoon with daytime heating, and a fair amount of moisture we will spark off a few pop-up storms in the low 80 degree air.
Tuesday will have a warm start to the day with lows in the lower 60s, and we will see that boundary settling closer to the US-30 corridor, which should push our highs back into the middle 80s. By the afternoon we will have scattered storms bubbling up once again in our area.
By Wednesday it does appear that boundary will drift a bit more north, but this will only allow a bit more moisture to build in our area. Again, daytime heating will give the best chances of storms in the afternoon and even hours on Wednesday.
Thursday the boundary begins to sag back to the south and east and this will encourage more scattered showers, clouds and highs a bit cooler back in the upper 70s.
Bottom line, expect a warm, and at times, wet pattern
It will not be a total washout through the period, but all indications are that we will have at least an inch of rain or more across our entire area within the next 7 days.
The above image from the Weather Prediction Center at NOAA, shows the days 1-7 total accumulated precipitation forecast. In fact everything in purple is for 1.5″ of rain or greater, with 2.5″+ possible in the north.
A lot of this will depend on where the “Buckeye Boundary” ends up spending most of its time around the state over the next week.
Enjoy the warmth, and watch your lawns and flowers enjoy the rain!