The video above is the Sunday, Oct. 30 episode of NBC4’s political show “The Spectrum with Colleen Marshall.”

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WMCH) – Republican J.D. Vance surpassed his Democratic opponent by a hair in Ohio’s latest U.S. Senate poll.

Conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, a Cygnal survey of nearly 1,500 likely Ohio voters released Friday found Vance with 49.3% of the vote compared with U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan’s 43.1% – a gap sufficient enough to fall outside the poll’s 2.33% margin of error, discerning Vance as the favorite.

“The big reason for Vance’s gain has been Republicans coming home,” Cygnal data scientist Noah Rudnick said in a news release.

The majority of Ohio voters remain steadfast in their commitment to incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, Cygnal also found.

Vance takes slight edge over Ryan

With the exception of Friday’s Cygnal poll and a second on Oct. 27, the market researcher’s tracking polls since Oct. 19 have placed Vance and Ryan in a statistical dead heat.

Vance could gain more support, Rudnick said, from middle-aged Republicans who plan to vote but have yet to do so. If turnout is a bit lower, an older, conservative faction of voters could give the Trump-endorsed venture capitalist and “Hillbilly Elegy” author a point or two.

Ryan, who has represented Ohio in Congress since 2003, must win over “unreliable young voters,” like Democrats and independents who have an unfavorable impression of President Joe Biden, Rudnick said.

“The other possible scenario is a post-Dobbs surge where women turn out in much higher numbers than anticipated, like the Kansas primary earlier this year,” Rudnick said, referencing the surge of abortion rights advocates who turned out to vote.

About 7.6% of likely Ohio voters said they’re still unsure who to vote for in the state’s U.S. Senate race, Cygnal found.

DeWine keeps double-digit lead over Whaley

Like the majority of independent polls conducted since the May primary, DeWine maintained a 19-point lead over his Democratic gubernatorial opponent, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.

Cygnal survey respondents favored the long-time Ohio politician DeWine with 55.8% of the vote, giving Whaley 36.9%. 

About 7.3% of likely Ohio voters remain undecided in the state’s governor race, according to Cygnal.