The video above is Sunday, Oct. 23 episode of NBC4’s political show “The Spectrum with Colleen Marshall” where both candidates and the latest polling are discussed.
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — As Election Day draws closer, the U.S. Senate race in Ohio remains tight, according to two polls released Thursday, with one placing a candidate in the lead slightly outside the margin of error.
The bulk of independent polls — like those released earlier this week by Siena College and the Marist Institute for Public Opinion — situate candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Ryan in a statistical dead heat.
But a Cygnal poll ranked Vance as the leader.
Cygnal conducted their Thursday tracking poll from Oct. 22 through 26, while Baldwin Wallace University pollsters conducted their final midterm Ohio Pulse Poll from Oct. 20 through 23 and released it Wednesday.
U.S. Senate race still close; Cygnal has Vance outside of margin of error
Cygnal’s latest poll placed Vance at 48.7% and Ryan at 43.7%, just outside the 2.3% margin of error.
The market researcher has released ongoing tracking polls every other day since Oct. 18. In each, Vance has had a small lead over Ryan. About 7.5% of the most recent poll’s respondents were unsure of who they’d cast a ballot for in the race.
In the Baldwin Wallace poll, Ryan -- a current Democratic member of Congress -- led his “Hillbilly Elegy” author and venture capitalist opponent by 4 percentage points, which was within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error.
Just over 50% of respondents said they would vote for Ryan or were leaning toward him as their preferred candidate, with 46% saying the same about Vance. The Baldwin Wallace poll said 3.8% of those polled were undecided.
| Pollster | FiveThirtyEight Score | Date Conducted | Vance (R) | Ryan (D) | Net Result | Within margin of error? |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 22-26 | 49% | 44% | Vance +5 | No (+/- 2.3%) |
| Baldwin Wallace University | B/C | Oct. 20-23 | 46% | 50% | Ryan +4 | Yes (+/- 3.5%) |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 20-24 | 48% | 44% | Vance +4 | Yes (+/- 2.26%) |
| Marist College | A | Oct. 17-20 | 46% | 45% | Vance +1 | Yes (+/- 3.9%) |
| Siena College | A | Oct. 14-19 | 46% | 46% | Tie +0 | Yes (+/- 5.1%) |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 14-18 | 47% | 43% | Vance +4 | Yes (+/- 2.58%) |
| Lucid | B- | Oct. 11-15 | 41% | 43% | Ryan +2 | Yes (+/- 3.8%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Oct. 11-15 | 47% | 45% | Vance +2 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Oct. 6-7 | 46% | 45% | Vance +1 | Yes (+/- 3%) |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 6-8 | 46% | 44% | Vance +2 | |
| Siena College | A | Sept. 18-22 | 43% | 46% | Ryan +3 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Baldwin Wallace University | B/C | Sept. 12-15 | 45% | 48% | Ryan +3 | Yes (+/- 4.1%) |
| Marist College | A | Sept. 12-13 | 46% | 45% | Vance +1 | Yes (+/- 3.6%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Sept. 12-13 | 44% | 40% | Vance +4 | No (+/- 3.2%) |
| Civiqs | B- | Sept. 10-13 | 48% | 45% | Vance +3 | Yes (+/- 4%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Sept. 5-7 | 46% | 47% | Ryan +1 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Echelon Insights | B/C | Aug. 31-Sept. 7 | 39% | 45% | Ryan +6 | No (+/- 4.3%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Aug. 15-16 | 45% | 42% | Vance +3 | Yes (+/- 3.2) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | May 22-24 | 42% | 39% | Vance +2 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
Clear frontrunner in governor’s race
Former Dayton mayor and Democratic candidate Nan Whaley trailed behind incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine in both polls. Most independent polls show DeWine with a double-digit lead.
In the latest Cygnal poll, 55.9% of respondents said they would vote for DeWine and running mate Jon Husted, and 35.4% said they would vote for Whaley and running mate Cheryl Stephens, with 8.7% undecided.
In the Baldwin Wallace poll, 56.6% of respondents said they would vote for DeWine and Husted or were leaning toward them as their preferred candidates, with 40% saying the same about Whaley and Stephens.
Voters leaning Republican in Ohio Supreme Court race
The Nov. 8 election is also the first time party affiliation will be printed on general election ballots next to the names of the Ohio Supreme Court candidates. Baldwin Wallace polled respondents on their preferred candidates in that race, and generally, the Republican candidates fared better.
In the chief justice race, Republican Sharon Kennedy led Democrat Jennifer Brunner by a little less than 7%; the two are both currently associate justices. The two incumbent Republicans, Pat Fischer and Pat DeWine, also outperformed Democrats Terri Jamison and Marilyn Zayas in the race for associate justice.
