GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS, Ohio (WCMH) — The high-profile election to fill Ohio’s 15th Congressional seat is two weeks away. But if it were held today, the Emerson College/NBC4 poll shows Republican Mike Carey would defeat Democrat state Rep. Allison Russo (D-Upper Arlington).

The district is politically and geographically diverse, covering rural communities like Circleville and London but also suburban areas like Upper Arlington and Grandview. As for the politics of the district, Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Stivers, has held the seat for a decade. He stepped down after being re-elected in 2020.

Likely voters polled by Emerson College in partnership with NBC4 were asked who they would vote for if the special election for OH-15 were held today. In the poll, nearly 40% chose Russo, but half went with Carey — an 11-point swing.

11% of respondents, although, said they were still undecided, a chance for Russo to close in. But those undecided voters are leaning nearly 20 points toward Carey:

Emerson College conducted the poll Oct. 14-16 among 445 likely voters living in the 15th district. The overall margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

For most polls, you can read the margin of error (MoE) like this: If the poll were to be done again 100 times, in 95 of those times the results would be within “X” percentage points of the original.

So let’s say a national poll of a sampling of registered voters, with an MoE of +/- 3, has:

  • Joe Biden at 53%
  • Donald Trump at 47%

  • You can be 95% certain that a hypothetical poll of all registered U.S. voters would yield results between these extremes:

  • Biden 56/Trump 44 (+3 more for Biden, -3 fewer for Trump)
  • Trump 50/Biden 50 (+3 more for Trump, -3 fewer for Biden)
  • The sample of voters is representative of the district's party affiliation makeup. The poll also weights for gender, age, education, race and region based on 2020 turnout modeling. Polling was conducted via landline phone and text-to-web.