COLUMBUS (WCMH) — This week, NBC4 has been presenting the results of an Emerson College/Nexstar Media Group poll of likely voters in the 15th Congressional District, which includes portions of Columbus and Franklin County.
Below are complete poll results and how we conducted the poll:
The Ohio 15th Congressional District Emerson College/Nexstar Media Group poll was conducted October 14-16, 2021. The sample consisted of Ohio 15th likely voters, 445, with a credibility interval similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2020 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected via a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and a landline sample using IVR.
1. What is your party registration?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | ||
Democrat | 130 | 29.2 | 29.2 | |
Republican | 168 | 37.8 | 67.0 | |
Independent or other | 147 | 33.0 | 100.0 | |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
2. How likely are you to vote in the election on November 2nd?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Somewhat likely | 39 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Very likely | 388 | 87.2 | 95.8 |
I already voted | 19 | 4.2 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
3. Is your opinion of President Joe Biden generally favorable or unfavorable?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Favorable | 150 | 33.7 | 33.7 |
Unfavorable | 265 | 59.6 | 93.2 |
No opinion | 28 | 6.2 | 99.5 |
I have never heard of this person | 2 | 0.5 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
4. Is your opinion of Governor Mike DeWine generally favorable or unfavorable?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Favorable | 217 | 48.7 | 48.7 |
Unfavorable | 181 | 40.6 | 89.3 |
No opinion | 46 | 10.4 | 99.7 |
I have never heard of this person | 1 | 0.3 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
5. Is your opinion of Senator Rob Portman generally favorable or unfavorable?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Favorable | 145 | 32.7 | 32.7 |
Unfavorable | 233 | 52.2 | 84.9 |
No opinion | 67 | 15.0 | 99.9 |
I have never heard of this person | 0 | 0.1 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
6. Is your opinion of Senator Sherrod Brown generally favorable or unfavorable?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Favorable | 187 | 41.9 | 41.9 |
Unfavorable | 196 | 44.0 | 86.0 |
No opinion | 62 | 13.9 | 99.8 |
I have never heard of this person | 1 | 0.2 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
7. Is your opinion of Mike Carey generally favorable or unfavorable?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Favorable | 135 | 30.4 | 30.4 |
Unfavorable | 183 | 41.1 | 71.5 |
No opinion | 86 | 19.4 | 90.9 |
I have never heard of this person | 40 | 9.1 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
8. Is your opinion of Allison Russo generally favorable or unfavorable?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Favorable | 142 | 31.9 | 31.9 |
Unfavorable | 134 | 30.2 | 62.0 |
No opinion | 128 | 28.8 | 90.8 |
I have never heard of this person | 41 | 9.2 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
9. If the special election for U.S. Congress were held today, who would you vote for?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Democrat Allison Russo | 173 | 38.9 | 38.9 |
Republican Mike Carey | 222 | 50.0 | 88.9 |
Undecided | 49 | 11.1 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
10. Undecideds: Which candidate are you leaning towards at this time?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Democrat Allison Russo | 20 | 4.5 | 40.7 |
Republican Mike Carey | 29 | 6.6 | 100.0 |
Total | 49 | 11.1 |
11. How important is it that candidates participate in a debate before an election?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Very important | 220 | 49.4 | 49.4 |
Somewhat important | 106 | 23.8 | 73.2 |
Not that important | 87 | 19.6 | 92.9 |
Not important at all | 32 | 7.1 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
12. Does President Trump’s endorsement of Mike Carey make you more or less likely to support him?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
More likely | 174 | 39.1 | 39.1 |
Less likely | 181 | 40.8 | 79.9 |
No difference | 89 | 20.1 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
13. Should President Trump run again in 2024?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Yes | 186 | 41.9 | 41.9 |
No | 209 | 46.9 | 88.8 |
Unsure or no opinion | 50 | 11.2 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
14. Thinking about the circumstances surrounding last year’s presidential election, which of the following describes your view of whether President Biden is a legitimate president?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
I accept him as the legitimate president | 259 | 58.1 | 58.1 |
I don’t accept him as the legitimate president | 186 | 41.9 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
15. Do you support a vaccine mandate?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Yes | 165 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
No | 216 | 48.5 | 85.5 |
Unsure or no opinion | 65 | 14.5 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
16. Which of the following issues is your top priority?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Something else (please specify) | 40 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Healthcare | 100 | 22.4 | 31.4 |
Jobs | 79 | 17.8 | 49.2 |
Education | 30 | 6.7 | 55.9 |
Covid-19 | 40 | 9.0 | 64.9 |
Corruption | 52 | 11.6 | 76.5 |
Immigration | 72 | 16.2 | 92.7 |
Infrastructure | 32 | 7.3 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
17. How familiar are you with the corruption case regarding House Bill 6?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Very familiar | 85 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
Somewhat familiar | 143 | 32.1 | 51.1 |
Not very familiar | 150 | 33.7 | 84.9 |
Not at all familiar | 67 | 15.1 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
18. Does the federal corruption case involving House Bill 6 impact your vote in the special election for Congress?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Yes | 148 | 33.4 | 33.4 |
No | 113 | 25.4 | 58.8 |
Unsure or no opinion | 183 | 41.2 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
19. Gender
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Male | 225 | 50.6 | 50.6 |
Female | 220 | 49.4 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
20. Who did you vote for in the 2020 election?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Joe Biden | 185 | 41.5 | 41.5 |
Donald Trump | 243 | 54.5 | 96.0 |
Someone else | 7 | 1.6 | 97.6 |
Did not vote | 11 | 2.4 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
21. Race/Ethnicity
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
White | 396 | 89.0 | 89.0 |
Non-white | 49 | 11.0 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
22. What is your age range?
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
18-34 years | 96 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
35-49 years | 118 | 26.5 | 48.0 |
50-64 years | 115 | 25.9 | 73.9 |
65 or more years | 116 | 26.1 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
23. Education attainment
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
No College degree | 251 | 56.4 | 56.4 |
College degree or more | 194 | 43.6 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
24. Please select the type of area you live in
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Urban/city | 93 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
Suburban | 174 | 39.0 | 59.8 |
Rural | 179 | 40.2 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |
25. Polling mode
Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
Mobile | 166 | 37.3 | 37.3 |
Landline | 279 | 62.7 | 100.0 |
Total | 445 | 100.0 |