COLUMBUS (WCMH) — The latest model data released by the Ohio State University and the Ohio Department of Health projects a peak of just over 1,600 new coronavirus cases per day in mid-April.

The projection calls for Ohio to peak at 1,607 new cases on April 19. Earlier versions of the OSU model projected between 6,000 and 10,000 new cases per day at the peak.

“Still a lot of cases per day, still a load on our hospitals, but this is the effect you have done,” said Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton. “This is how you have saved lives.”

If nothing had been done, the model projects there would have been 62,000 cases per day at the peak.

The model takes into account the continuation of strict social distancing.

“If we stopped today, if we all went outside, two more weeks, we would have gone way up again,” said Dr. Acton. “We have to hold steady.”

Acton says early mitigation is key to Ohio’s curve being so small.

“We are very blessed to be in this category of early mitigation. We have got to stay there,” said Dr. Acton.

The latest Interntional Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model has again revised down the number of deaths projected in Ohio. The model now projects a total of 489 deaths in the state, down from 544.

A previous version of the IHME model projected 1,898 deaths in Ohio with a peak of 69 per day.

The IHME model also takes into account continued social distancing.