50 cases per 100,000 people: Here is how Ohio gets to Gov. DeWine’s COVID-19 goal


COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – Gov. Mike DeWine made it clear in a statewide address on Thursday: All state coronavirus orders will lift once Ohio gets below 50 cases of the virus per 100,000 people over a two-week period.

Although the governor setting a concrete benchmark guides Ohio toward the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, that 50-per-100,000 goal is still in the distance. Here’s the math:

For Ohio (population 11,689,100) to get down to 50 cases per 100,000 residents over a two-week period, the state cannot see more than 5,844 new cases over 14 days. The target for daily cases, then, would be an average of 417 new cases per day.

Ohio has not seen a daily case increase that low since it reported 412 cases on June 17. The Ohio Department of Health reported 1,875 new cases on Thursday.

Over the past 14 days, Ohio has reported 27,091 new cases, which comes out to about 232 per 100,000. Essentially, new COVID-19 cases in Ohio need to decrease almost five-fold to reach the governor’s goal.

Even though cases will have to drop to summer-2020-like levels for restrictions like the statewide mask order and public space capacity limit to lift, DeWine seemed hopeful in his Thursday evening address.

“On Dec. 3, 2020, Ohio was at 731 cases per 100,000 population over the previous two weeks, 731. On Feb. 3 — one month ago — Ohio’s cases were down to 445. And just yesterday, we were down to 179 cases,” the governor said.

“In three months, we’ve gone down 550 cases per 100,000 people,” he added. “Over the last month alone, we’ve gone down 265 cases per 100,000. Ohio is on the right path to get us to 50. And this is thanks to the vaccine, and thanks to your hard work and what you are doing every day to help mitigate the virus.”

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